China's $112 Billion Trade-Data Gap Is Only Part of the Story

Bloomberg documented (opens in a new tab) a $112 billion gap in 2025 between China's reported exports to the United States and U.S.-reported imports from China, alongside evidence of phantom importers and suspiciously low declarations. The figure is alarming, but it is not a measured fraud total.

What matters is the reversal. Before the 2018 tariffs, American import records generally exceeded China's corresponding export figures. New York Fed research (opens in a new tab) calculated that by 2024 the gap had moved about $158 billion from its pre-tariff benchmark. An earlier Fed study (opens in a new tab) examined how tariffs and reporting incentives contributed to the shift. These studies do not prove an equivalent amount of fraud.

Our Trade Crime Study Guide examines this wider problem. CBP must investigate what the discrepancy reflects, distinguish legitimate statistical effects from misdeclaration, and pursue recoverable unpaid duties where violations are established.