Tariff Fraud Calculator
Understanding how we calculate the estimated value of tariff fraud and fraudulent trade
Calculation Methodology
Section 301 Tariff Evasion Formula
If U.S. imports from China had stayed at 2017 (pre-tariff) levels, Customs and Border Protection would have assessed about $498B in Section 301 tariffs by the end of 2025. In reality, CBP actually assessed $267B—a $230B gap (~46%).
Taken together, firsthand accounts, investigative reporting, and U.S. trade deficit data—covering China and its proxies—suggest that our estimate likely understates the true scale.
Key Assumptions & Data Sources
Fixed Baseline
Section 301 tariff-eligible imports maintained at ~$370B to provide consistent measurement framework
Evasion Methods
Accounts for undervaluation, misclassification, and transshipment through third countries
Data Sources
CBP Section 301 Assessment Data, US Census Bureau U.S. Trade Deficit Data and U.S. Import Data, Goldman Sachs, CPA De Minimis Analysis
Time Period
Calculations cover January 2018 through December 2025, coinciding with Section 301 implementation
Important Limitations & Disclaimers
Estimation Methodology: These figures represent estimates based on available trade data and observed patterns. Actual fraud amounts may vary due to the covert nature of these activities.
Data Limitations: Trade fraud is deliberately concealed, making precise measurement challenging. Our methodology provides a reasonable approximation based on observable trade flow anomalies.
Evolving Tactics: Fraud methods continuously evolve, and our calculations may not capture all emerging schemes or their full impact.
Policy Context: These estimates are intended to inform policy discussions and should be considered alongside other economic and enforcement data.
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